Key insights
- A Brookings Institution report indicates that increased ICE enforcement in the US led to an estimated 668,000 job losses, impacting businesses, consumer spending, and employment across various sectors. This suggests a negative drag on economic activity, potentially leading to reduced corporate earnings and slower GDP growth, which could weigh on US equity markets.
Investing.com -- The Trump administration’s immigration enforcement surge across major U.S. cities last year resulted in an estimated 668,000 job losses and weighed on local economic activity, according to a report released by the Brookings Institution and cited by Bloomberg on Friday.
The study found that intensified Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations created a broader economic impact beyond undocumented workers, affecting businesses, consumer spending, and employment across multiple sectors.
Researchers examined 86 cities that experienced the largest increases in ICE arrests during the first half of 2025 and estimated that roughly 13 jobs were lost for every additional arrest.
Construction and other industries that traditionally employ large numbers of undocumented workers experienced some of the largest employment declines. The report also found job losses in sectors such as arts and entertainment, where immigrant employment is relatively limited.
According to the study, businesses reduced staffing and activity as immigration enforcement operations became more visible and concerns spread through local communities.
The authors estimated that between 51,000 and 297,000 of the lost jobs would have been held by U.S.-born workers. The report said companies that relied partly on immigrant labor often scaled back operations after facing labor shortages, affecting both immigrant and native-born employees.
The research was based on ICE arrest data compiled by the Deportation Data Project, employment estimates from labor market analytics firm Lightcast, and federal payroll records.
The report also pointed to weaker consumer spending in immigrant-heavy communities.
Researchers cited a separate study showing spending in Los Angeles neighborhoods with large foreign-born populations fell by as much as 25% in the two months following the announcement of a local ICE enforcement campaign.
The Brookings researchers said the administration’s approach differed from previous immigration enforcement efforts because of its scale and visibility, creating what they described as a broader "chilling effect" on local economies.
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment, according to the report.
The findings come as the Trump administration continues to argue that stricter immigration enforcement helps protect American workers, while critics contend that large-scale enforcement actions can disrupt labor markets and economic activity in affected communities.
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