
Chip index (SOX) is 34% below its June close while big tech CAPEX keeps climbing. Equivalent of the 1998 dip or 2000 top?
In 2000 the chip index halved before telecom spending even started to fall, and then halved again. On Wednesday, the day after the election, Microsoft rose almost 7% and Amazon 6%, while Micron fell 7%. On Thursday the chip index (SOX) fell 12%, its worst day since March 2020, and the four big buyers of AI capacity fell 2% to 4%. On Friday SOX got back 4% and ended the week 34% below its June 30 close. The selling was put down to fears that data center building slows after Tuesday’s election. A large part of the chip makers’ revenue is capex at Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta, so a slowdown hits the sellers straight away, while the buyers get their capacity later than they wanted and hold on to the money until then. Counting from the start of each build-out, telecom equipment spending got to about 1.9x its 1995 level in 2000, and SOX peaked at 8.5x in March 2000. This time the four companies’ capex is already at 4.1x the 2022 level, while SOX peaked at 3.6x in June and is at 2.4x










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