Key insights
- Easter chocolate prices in the U.S. will remain elevated despite a significant drop in cocoa futures due to manufacturers' existing inventory and hedging strategies. Wells Fargo suggests price relief may not appear until mid-2026. While Easter is a smaller candy holiday, it's heavily chocolate-driven, with estimated consumer spending at $3.3 billion. This sticky inflation in a specific consumer good suggests continued, albeit moderate, pressure on consumer discretionary spending.
By Marcelo Teixeira
NEW YORK, March 20 (Reuters) - Prices for chocolate eggs and bunnies will remain high this Easter in the United States despite the fact that prices for the main raw material used to make them - cocoa beans - have gone sharply down over the last year, a report said on Friday.
"Even though cocoa futures have dropped, retail prices remain sticky because candy makers buy cocoa months in advance and work through existing inventory and hedges," said David Branch, Sector Manager at Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute, in a report.
"Most Easter chocolates were produced when cocoa was still extremely expensive, so shoppers should expect prices similar to or slightly above Valentine’s Day levels," he added.
Cocoa futures prices fell more than 70% since a record-high level reached at the end of 2024 due to a recovery in production and changes in the industry, which reduced the size of packages and increased the use of alternative, non-cocoa ingredients.
Branch said that some price reduction might reach store shelves in the U.S. by mid‑2026, around Halloween time, as lower cocoa costs work their way through production cycles.
Easter in the U.S. is a smaller candy holiday compared with Halloween and winter holidays, but it is heavily chocolate-driven, with approximately 90% of all Easter baskets including chocolate, according to the National Confectioners Association.
The industry estimates consumers to spend $3.3 billion on Easter candy this year.