Key insights
- The author anticipates a potential geopolitical event involving Iran over the weekend, specifically targeting Qeshm Island. They believe this could trigger a temporary "algorithmic green" reaction in the market, providing a window to trim short positions before redeploying them next week. The author maintains a long-term bearish outlook, viewing the situation as an escalation that will not resolve underlying issues and could lead to further instability.
I am long term bearish but trying to time a bit.
I am hoping for some more red as the market continues to call Trump's bluff to be able to trim my short positions a bit by Friday. The intention is definitely to redeploy next week.
We will be in position to strike basically by the weekend, though the marines are just arriving at that point. What are the chances for a good headline by Sunday? Kharg could probably be taken in that timeframe, though I don't know that we would try to push through the strait to get there.
Isn't Qeshm the most likely target? How would that develop over the course of a weekend? Would it cause temporary algorithmic green? It doesn't reopen the strait of course, but more than enough to create some false relief.
Long term this is bearish IMO. It doesn't reopen the strait. We are going to get drone-struck holding this. It is escalation. Iran can bomb desalination plants.
I'm wondering if there's a window to work with, and I kind of think there is some green window here.