Key insights
- The analysis identifies companies (CMCSA, HOG, TAP) with historically high free cash flow (FCF) yields. Comcast's revenue is highly correlated with US nominal GDP, making it sensitive to macro conditions. Harley-Davidson exhibits strong capital allocation and shareholder yield. Molson Coors demonstrates consistent FCF generation. The analysis also highlights Shutterstock's declining cash generation, suggesting potential risks. Overall, the piece suggests value opportunities based on FCF, but also acknowledges company-specific and macroeconomic risks.
Built a screen using 15 years of SEC XBRL data. Filters: True FCF yield (OCF minus CapEx minus SBC) above 10% for the entire history of the stock, at least 10 years of data, P/B between 0.1 and 10, no financials, real CapEx present.
Got a list with some garbage and some names worth looking at. Added Sirius, Ford and Mattel manually since I wanted them in the comparison.
The interesting ones: CMCSA, HOG, TAP. Here's what I found on each:
Comcast: 20%+ True FCF yield. Revenue correlation to US nominal GDP is 96% over the last 5 years. It wasn't always this way, the empire-building era (2012-2017) kept correlation negative. Now it's one of the most NGDP-integrated businesses I've found. The bear case (fiber competition, Peacock losses, debt costs) is real and so is the yield.
Harley-Davidson: 9.7% of float retired in a single year and 13.4% total shareholder yield. 0.79x tangible book with almost no goodwill - the manufacturing business is essentially debt-free. While the brand is aging, the capital allocation seems exceptional.
Molson Coors: Trading below book. In 17 years FCF never went negative. 10.2% total shareholder yield. Is it safe? Well, it's beer.
Also added a rolling 5-year NGDP correlation layer which shows Shutterstock losing its cash generation ability in real time (FCF went negative in 2024 while revenue kept growing.
Methodology in the piece. Happy to share the data: https://cavemanscreener.substack.com/p/lookin-for-value-in-all-the-wrong