Key insights
- Goldman Sachs upgraded Porsche to 'buy' with a higher price target, citing expected improvements in the 911 model mix and indirect cost reductions. Despite a near-term cut to FY26 EPS estimates, the firm raised FY28 EPS projections and forecasts strong EPS growth through 2030. The upgrade suggests potential positive sentiment spillover for the automotive sector and luxury goods, though the direct impact on US equities is moderate.
Investing.com -- Goldman Sachs upgraded Porsche AG to “buy” from “neutral” on Thursday, raising its 12-month price target to €59 from €39, implying 23.6% upside from the closing price of €47.73.
The broker applied a 20x target multiple, up from 15x previously, on a 50/50 blend of fiscal year 2027 and 2028 earnings per share estimates. The revised price target implies 14.5x on fiscal year 2029 estimated EPS, the report said.
Goldman Sachs revised its fiscal year 2026 EPS estimate to €1.79 from €1.99, a 10.2% cut, while lifting fiscal year 2028 EPS to €3.37 from €3.02, an 11.7% increase. The fiscal year 2027 EPS estimate was trimmed 2.1% to €2.52. The broker forecasts an EPS compound annual growth rate to 2030 of 30%.
The analysts cited two near-term factors: 911 model mix normalization and indirect cost reduction.
Goldman Sachs forecast 911 average selling price accretion of approximately 12% in fiscal year 2026 and 5% in fiscal year 2027, against Visible Alpha Consensus Data estimates of 5.9% and 2.4% respectively. Total group ASP growth was forecast at 10.4% for fiscal year 2026 and 5.1% for fiscal year 2027.
The broker attributed the skewed 992.2 generation launch mix to supplier force-majeure disruptions in the second half of 2024, which concentrated initial deliveries in base and mid-tier variants. Goldman Sachs forecast mix maturity by 2027, in line with the trajectory of the prior 992 generation, which reached maturity in year three to year four.
On costs, the report noted Porsche’s selling, general and administrative expenses stood at 12.9% of group revenue in fiscal year 2025, against Ferrari at 9%, BMW at 7.9% and Mercedes-Benz Group at 9.2%.
Goldman Sachs said only 76.5% of Porsche’s 41,800 total employees as of fiscal year 2025 were covered under the company’s 2030 employment guarantee.
The broker forecast group EBIT of €2.22 billion in fiscal year 2026, rising to €3.11 billion in fiscal year 2027 and €4.17 billion in fiscal year 2028. Group EBIT margin was forecast at 6.7% for fiscal year 2026, 8.6% for fiscal year 2027 and 9.7% for fiscal year 2028.
Goldman Sachs forecast China deliveries of approximately 28,000 units in fiscal year 2026 and 23,000 units in fiscal year 2027, down from 93,000 units in fiscal year 2022. China’s share of total deliveries was forecast at 11% in fiscal year 2026 and 9.5% in fiscal year 2027.
The analysts forecast total deliveries of 250,459 units in fiscal year 2026 and 246,201 units in fiscal year 2027, reflecting volume declines of 10% and 2% respectively.
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