Key insights
- JPMorgan predicts the Strait of Hormuz will reopen by June 1st to alleviate pressure on refined fuel prices, which are rising faster than crude oil. Even if it reopens, Brent crude is expected to remain around $100, suggesting continued elevated energy prices and persistent inflationary pressures. This could limit potential downside for energy stocks and maintain upward pressure on consumer prices.
Yahoo Finance Senior Business Reporter Ines Ferré shares recent developments on oil (CL=F, BZ=F) and gas prices, highlighting JPMorgan's (JPM) latest call.
at the core of these absolutely horrible reports, it's energy prices. Now you've been digging into all things gas prices.
Yeah, that's right. And we have seen gas prices going higher at around 450 per gallon, um, AAA.
But look, if you take a look at what has been happening with refined fuels, J.P. Morgan put it very bluntly in a note this week, refined fuels is where you are seeing most of the increase.
Okay, you've got Brent crude that's above 100, you've got WTI that's elevated as well. But it's really in the refined products where we're seeing big price hikes. And what they're saying is is that the straight of Ramus has to be open. They're assuming that by June 1st, the straight over Ramus one way or another is going to be open because of the critical levels that the world is heading towards when it comes to energy.
And if you look at the uh price increases in uh gasoline, in diesel, these are increases much higher than that increase that you're seeing in crude oil. and the consumer does not buy crude oil. The consumer buys gasoline.
Uh Inez, I posted that quote from uh J.P. Morgan on the street of news potentially. They think it could open like you mentioned on June 1st. Uh, the X community thinks JP Morgan is is is on something.
I mean, they they just do not agree with that call. and it's important to note, if it were to open in this magical scenario, it's not like oil and gas prices are going to go plunging and we're not we're going to suddenly start to get deflationary CPI and PPI reports over the next five months.
No, they're expecting that Brent is going to hang out around uh the low hundreds for the rest of the year if it it does reopen in June. So, you are still going to see these elevated prices.
And I will note also that Evercore ISI in their note this week that was talking about feeling like 1999, they were saying, look, if you are still talk, if we're still talking about uh gasoline prices above $4 in July by Independence Day, then they would become cautious on stocks.
And that is because when you have higher energy, it tends to go towards more of a recessionary environment.