Key insights
- The author expresses frustration with market timing, specifically missing out on semiconductor and AI-related rallies due to a history of holding cash and entering late. They are considering a concentrated bet on semiconductor stocks (NVDA, AMD, MU, SK Hynix) and energy picks tied to AI hype, despite concerns about being 'exit liquidity.' This sentiment reflects a common retail investor dilemma of FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) and difficulty in executing timely trades, which, while not a direct market signal, indicates potential retail participation shifts.
How does one get in at this point? I've been heavy in cash for decades. I'll be pretty much poor when I'm forced out of the work force in a few years.
I'm looking to go all in to semis and tickers surrounding, but it feels bad, like I'm just going to feed the exit liquidity.
I do this every so often. I look at charts daily for months when things are pumping, looking for entries based on pullbacks or oversold conditions that never come. Then I forget about for months or years, maybe trade a little forex, low budget stocks and options or crypto. then the cycle repeats. I get some wind of things going down, and I want to get in at the top again.
I have a pile cash. I don't have years and years before I'll need the cash, but the cash isn't enough to be useful for retirement. I'm reading non stop that people are tripling and quadrupling their net worth over the past many months, and people are saying that the market is different and only going up, and bearish market will not exist.
I have a lot of lines drawn on charts. Many of my lines are legit, but usually miss most of my entries because I can't be at charts all the time. I miss all my exits if I do get in. I just recently picked some stocks and drew some some lines. Come back a few days later to find that my lines where spot on and I missed massive moves.
So what do I do? I'm thinking I should just full port across nvda, mu, amd, sk hynix when it debuts, and maybe a few energy energy picks that are close to the ai hype. I'm tired of decades of showing up after the fact.
I'm completely demoralized that missed all the free money. I always show up after the free money, then donate my money for exit liquidity.