Key insights
- The article compares Jerome Powell's performance as Fed Chair to his predecessors, highlighting his low unemployment record but higher average inflation. It notes the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent monetary policy shifts. The comparison suggests ongoing concerns about inflation management and the difficulty of achieving a soft landing, potentially leading to bearish sentiment in US equities.
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As chair of the Federal Reserve since 2018, Jerome Powell was supposed to keep inflation low and employment high. So, how did he do?
Powell is on track to have the lowest average unemployment rate and the third-highest average inflation among the six Fed chairs who have run the central bank since 1977. That was when Congress first directed the Fed to keep the economy running at "maximum employment" and ensure "price stability."
Inflation, as measured by Personal Consumption Expenditures, averaged 3% during Powell's tenure, above the Fed's 2% annual target and above the inflation rate when Janet Yellen, Ben Bernanke, and Alan Greenspan were in charge.
Here's how he stacks up against his predecessors:
Powell's term will end on May 15, when he will likely be replaced by Kevin Warsh, whom President Donald Trump nominated for the job. Powell was first appointed by Trump in 2018, succeeding Janet Yellen.
Each Fed chair had to steer the central bank through the economic challenges of the time. Powell's biggest hurdle was the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and all the fallout that ensued.
The pandemic turned monetary policy upside down. Before 2020, central bankers were mainly worried that inflation was too low and were engineering ways to push it up to the Fed's 2% annual target. After the pandemic snarled supply chains and the government gave Americans trillions of dollars in stimulus money, inflation spiked and the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate in an effort to wrestle it down.
Jerome Powell leaves a lasting mark on the Fed, having led it through a time of economic and political upheaval. His approach to monetary policy kept unemployment lower than any other Fed chair, although he was not able to get inflation down to the Fed's goal of a 2% annual rate.
Powell's attempts to bring the economy into a "soft landing" from pandemic-induced inflation have been complicated in his final year. Tariffs kept inflation stubbornly above 2% and the war with Iran amplified inflation concerns by pushing up energy prices.
Unemployment followed a similar pattern, surging during the pandemic but tumbling to 50-year lows in the years that followed. The unemployment rate edged up in 2025 amid a hiring slowdown driven by uncertainty among business leaders about trade policy, but remained relatively low by historic standards at 4.3% as of March.
The economic data covering Powell's final few months in office has yet to arrive, but is unlikely to change the average much. Powell's final press conference as Fed chair is expected to take place on Wednesday, and he may take the opportunity to reflect on his eight years at the helm.
"He may be asked questions that look back on his entire term as Fed Chair," John Ryding, chief economist at Brean Capital, wrote in a commentary. "Judged by the inflation numbers, his record is not that great... Chair Powell had the best record on the labor-market leg of the dual mandate but by far the [worst] on price stability."
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