Key insights
- The author believes Berkshire Hathaway is a good investment in the current uncertain market environment due to its large cash position, potential for buybacks, and historical inverse correlation with the market during downturns. They see it as a hedge against a market crash and a solid investment even if the war ends and a recession is avoided. This suggests a moderately bullish outlook for Berkshire relative to the broader market.

I went all in oil and lng stocks the last month since the war started, but I sold everything recently because there is a real possibility of a peace deal, and if that happens oil futures could crash hard in a single day and oil stocks follow.
But I dont think I can go full long in stocks like this is going to solve quick and easy, because oil can still go to 150$ or 200$, and a recession is not off the table. I also think the last two green days of relief rally could be a bull trap, and market can go lower if things get ugly.
Thats why I think Berkshire Hathaway is asymetric in this situation and a hedge against a market crash, because they have a record massive cash pile of almost 400B$ that they could deploy if needed.
Also when you consider that a month ago Greg Abel in CNBC said that he talked with Buffet and considered the stock undervalued at current price after It being lateral for some time and they plan to do buybacks at these prices. So if there is no recession and war ends Berkshire is still a very good investment in my opinion.
I was also looking when the stock market crashed last year with tariffs, and noticed that meanwhile sp500 went down 20% from january to april, Berkshire went up in that same period, having inverse correlation with market when market panics. And that could happen again if situation gets ugly from here, because market knows Berkshire is a safe heaven in a market crash.
After selling oil stocks, now I went all in Berkshire.
What do you think about this whole market environment? Any other stocks or assets that could do well regardless of possible outcomes?