Key insights
- The author expresses concern about the Nasdaq's potential decline to 16K-17K due to the ongoing Iran war and its impact on oil/gas prices. They anticipate cascading effects on inflation and interest rates, potentially ending a 15-year stock market bull run. The author is considering shifting to a more conservative investment strategy, favoring 4% interest earnings over potential stock market losses, suggesting a bearish outlook for US equities.
I risked 1% of my portfolio in the stock market at its peak (got tired of waiting for a correction and decided to trigger it :)) and I’m down 10% since then, and naturally I don't care much.
I was checking the last 2 years of NASDAQ Composite Index values and we are almost back to Dec 2024 levels. So now I’m thinking if we are heading back to 16K–17K levels for Nasdaq, and if so, would that be a good time to buy.
According to some analysts, 30% of oil/gas-related infrastructure in the Middle East has been destroyed, and gas rationing is already in effect in some Asian countries such as Philippines, and expected to spread to others like Vietnam and Cambodia in the coming weeks. Considering no visible end to the Iran war and a possible US ground invasion, I’m wondering if 17K is really a good entry point, which I suspect would occur by mid June if Iran war persists
An increase in oil/gas prices might soon have cascading effects on transportation, energy, food, etc., and will likely result in higher inflation and interest rates. So I’m wondering if we might be coming to the end of 15 years of stock market euphoria that means keep earning 4% interest for my portfolio, but I guess that's better than losing 40% in stock market. What do you say?