Key insights
- The author anticipates widespread earnings disappointments due to disrupted supply chains, particularly impacting companies with international procurement and thin margins. They expect negative guidance and increased use of euphemisms like "unexpected headwinds." The author is bearish on industrials, semiconductors, and energy-related companies, holding SPY and XLE put options, suggesting a negative outlook for the overall US equity market.
Supply chains just got Viet Konged and nobody wants to talk about it yet. But earnings calls don't lie, guidance does.
Watch for the buzzword bingo this quarter. Every CFO pulling up the same script:
"Uncertain macro environment":translation: we are cooked
"We remain cautiously optimistic" translation: updating LinkedIn
"Temporary disruption in key markets" translation: permanent disruption in our margins
The companies most exposed are the ones with heavy international procurement and thin margins who've been skating on "just in time" supply chains that are now "just in shambles." Industrials, semis, energy-adjacent names, anyone sourcing through the Middle East or relying on stable shipping lanes.
This is going to be a beautiful quarter for put holders and an extinction-level event for anyone who bought calls because "it already priced in bro."
Nothing is priced in. Nothing has ever been priced in. The market prices things in the same way I read terms and conditions.
Positions: SPY 540P 4/17, XLE puts, and emotional damage