Key insights
- The author argues against expectations of a major market crash, pointing to strong earnings growth despite a Nasdaq pullback. S&P 500 companies are exceeding earnings expectations, suggesting resilience. A significant earnings slowdown is seen as a prerequisite for a further substantial market decline.
Nasdaq is down 8% since October. In that time period 73% S&P companies are beating earnings expectations and they're up 14% year-over-year. So earnings have been booming in the last 6 months and the market is down not insignificantly. Yes we haven't seen things fall off a cliff but the last time we were down 8% over a 6 month period was 2022 and at that time earnings were growing significantly slower than was expected - only 6% year-over-year.
We have had a significant pull back in time over the last 6 months and earnings are doing great. I would stop expecting a massive pull back on top of what we have already seen unless we see a HUGE earnings slowdown.
Happy trading/investing!