Key insights
- The author highlights the potential for geopolitical events, specifically in the Strait of Hormuz, to disrupt global oil supply and negatively impact the SPY. They argue that supply chain issues and unexpected headwinds during earnings season, coupled with geopolitical risks, create a bullish scenario for oil (XLE) and a bearish one for the broader market (SPY). The pre-market SPY decline of 1.12% reinforces their bearish outlook.
~Nine days ago I posted that every CEO was about to say "unexpected headwinds" 47 times this earnings season. 1.5M views. 8.5K upvotes. The thesis was simple: supply chains are cooked, nothing is priced in, and put holders are about to eat.
Some galaxy brain in the comments decided to post "this aged like fucking milk" roughly six hours before oil started ripping like it just discovered pre-workout and SPY started bleeding out on geopolitical escalation in the Gulf.
This man watched shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz become a live fire exercise and decided THAT was the moment to tell me my bear thesis was wrong. He didn't even wait for the earnings calls. He speedran being wrong so fast he lapped himself.
Let me update the translations from the original post since we have new data:
"Unexpected headwinds" translation: we are being bombed
"Cautiously optimistic" translation: our shipping containers are floating somewhere in the Gulf of Oman
"Temporary disruption" translation: the disruption has its own aircraft carrier
"We remain focused on execution" translation: so does the Pentagon
To the guy who said this aged like milk: milk expires in two weeks. Your portfolio expired in two days. The difference between us is I read a map and you read the vibes. The Strait of Hormuz handles 20% of global oil transit and you thought puts were regarded.
This is not financial advice. This is a victory lap in a flaming building. We are all going to die but at least my options are printing.
Positions: SPY puts, XLE calls, emotional damage (compounding daily)
SPY Is down 1.12% as of 6am pre market. Buy the dip, or ride the elevator down?