So this happened. After averaging down for almost two years on what I thought was a value play, Estée Lauder announced merger talks with my position. Stock gapped up 15%. I sold some, kept most, and now I'm trying to process what the hell just happened.

But here's the thing that's been bothering me: someone bought €45 million worth in after-hours trading the week before the announcement. And I want your take on wether this was legal or not.

The beginning (aka my expensive education)

May 2024. PUIG (Spanish beauty/fragrance company) IPOs at €24.50. I see Charlotte Tilbury in the portfolio, read about "premium positioning" and "family-controlled business," and buy 30 shares at €26.06. Classic retail FOMO. I'm immediatly down 10% and it keeps falling.

For context: I'm not a professional. I work a regular job. This is money I've saved and I'm teaching myself as I go. So naturally, I decided the solution was to average down for the next 22 months.

The grind (and the moment I almost lost conviction)

Here's the thing nobody tells you about DCA - it's psychologically brutal when your doing it on a falling stock. Every month I'm buying more, watching my average cost drift from €26 down through €21, €20, €19, €18, €17...

My thesis: P/E of 14x vs L'Oréal at 25x, Charlotte Tilbury growing fast, 7.8% organic revenue growth, family-controlled for long-term focus.

But then October 2025 happened. Stock hit €13.11 - an all-time low, 50% down from IPO.

I only had cash for 50 shares that month. Bought at €13.59. It barely moved my average. And for the first time I seriously questioned whether I was just bagholding a dying thesis. Maybe I was wrong about the value. Maybe the market knew something I didn't.

Looking back, that was the capitulation moment I should have backed up the truck. But doubt is a hell of a thing.

Kept grinding though. By March 2026: 2000 shares at €16.69 average.

March 3rd: The crash day buy

Market crashes. Iran escalation. IBEX down 4.4%, PUIG down 5.4%.

Around 11am it hits €14.77. And I just... bought. 350 shares. Not genius - I was genuinely worried it could go lower but figured the fundamentals hadn't changed.

Turns out €14.77 was €0.30 from the absolute bottom of €14.47 that day. Pure luck.

March 9-23: The weird stuff starts

Starting March 18-19, HUGE after-hours volume. 2.2-2.4 million shares traded after close (normal daily volume is 600-800k). Price jumping from €15.53 to €15.98 in after-hours.

March 19: Another 2 million shares after-hours, €15.49 to €15.86.

Someone bought roughly €45 million in two after-hours sessions.

At the time I'm thinking "institutional accumulation? Odd timing though."

March 23: More unusual volume, 1.54M shares. Closes at €15.57.

March 23 evening: Oh. THAT'S why.

After close: Estée Lauder + PUIG merger talks announced. Combined entity worth $40B.

The logic makes sense - Estée Lauder is weak in fragrances (PUIG's strength, 70% of revenue), and Charlotte Tilbury is exactly what they need.

March 24: The gap up

Opens at €17.98. Up 15% overnight.

Decision time. I've been underwater 22 months. Suddenly up. What do I do?

I sold 30% at €17.75 (turned out to be 97.7% of the day's high at €18.16 so far - luck again).

Why 30%?

• Big gaps often pullback * Talks aren't a done deal * 22 months deserved locking something in * But if deal hits €18-20, I want exposure

Now:

• €10,650 cash locked * 1400 shares held * Up ~7% overall

Volume hit 4.5M by 10:30am. Insane.

The question: Was that €45M legal?

Timeline:

• March 18-19: €45M bought after-hours (€15.50-€15.98) * March 23: Merger announced * March 24: Stock at €17.90+

That €45M is now €52M. €7M profit in 6 days.

Why after-hours? Why that week? Why that size?

My theories:

1) Estée Lauder building a position Common in M&A - buyer accumulates 3-5% pre-announcement. Legal if disclosed within 10 days. Shows commitment.

2) Inside info front-running Classic illegal insider trading. But risky - worth jail for €7M?

3) Incredibly lucky hedge fund Some fund saw PUIG undervalued. But €45M on a hunch? Doesn't fit how they operate.

4) Bank advisor leak Happens more than admitted. Hard to prove.

If it's #1, that's bullish - their serious. If it's #2-4, investigation risk could tank the deal.

What do you think?

What I learned

DCA with conviction, not blindly I bought more during dips. March 3rd was 17.5% of my position near the bottom.

Do your homework Knowing the numbers let me buy at €14.77 when it felt scary. Even when I doubted at €13.11, the fundamentals kept me in.

Have an exit plan 30% at €17.75 means even if this crashes, I locked something. The 70% is house money now.

Doubt is normal At €13.11 I questioned everything. That's the exact moment conviction matters most.

Current position

Position: 1400 PUIG at €16.69 avg (currently €17.90)

Next: Sell 20% at €18.50, target €19-20 if deal confirms, stop at €16.50 if it falls apart.

Disclosure: Not advice. Merger might not happen. I might be wrong about everything. Just sharing my journey.

Update: Will post if deal confirms or dies. Also if that €45M buyer gets identified.

TL;DR: DCA'd Spanish beauty stock 22 months from €26 to €16.69. Hit all-time low €13.11 in Oct 2025, almost lost conviction but held. Bought 350 shares at €14.77 in March crash (€0.30 from bottom). Someone bought €45M the week before Estée Lauder merger announcement. Stock gapped to €17.98. Sold 30% at €17.75, holding 70%. Up 7% overall. Still processing WTF just happened.