Key insights
- The author has liquidated all AI-related stock holdings (Nvidia, Amazon, ASML, Micron, ONsemi, LAMResearch, Alphabet) due to concerns about market detachment from risk. Key worries include supply chain disruptions for critical AI components like helium, bromine, germanium, and gallium, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and export controls. Additionally, postponed data center builds in the US due to energy constraints and shortages in base metals like copper and aluminum are cited. The author believes the AI trade is priced for an unrealistic scenario
Hello, everyone
I have sold all my AI stocks in both of my portfolios: Nvidia, Amazon, ASML, Micron, ONsemi, LAMResearch and even Alphabet.
I have made a lot of gains in AI trade, with some of the mentioned stocks returning 5x, 8x from cost basis. But most absolute gains I got from Nvidia which i let to grow as big as 67% of my portfolio back in August 2025.
Now I have been pretty bushin on technology and companies, adding aggressively on every major dip. Deepseek scare dip, the Liberation dip, that weird ASML dip in July 2025. And I have been pushing my leverage through margin debt for years now.
But returns were fast to come and they outweighed the interest rate by wide margin so I kept buying and holding.
But this recent rally in April and May has got me worried. Despite the risks going up on multiple fronts, despite the rising inflation and cost of capital, despite weakening consumer and reign of chaos in Washington, the prices have kept going up. And at some point prices have become so detached from the risk reward ratio, that I decided to get out.
Especially supply chain risks:
Helium and Bromine production is seriously affected as a result of war in Iran. Qatar accounted for one third of global helium peoduction in 2025.
2/3 of Bromine produced in Jordan and Israel.
Then there are rare earth metals that have gone under export control of CCP. China produces 60% of Germanium and Gallium in the world. Those are essential for fiber optic manufacturing.
And then there are multiple articles on many data center build outs being postponed in US due to energy and energy grid capacity. Up to 50% of planned data center construction have been postponed till 2028.
And even production of base metalls like Copper and Aluminum is lagging hard, with estimates of shortage growing to 35% by 2030.
AI trade though is priced as if there are no issues ahead, abundance of resources and cheap capital.
Not to mention the crazy IPOs announced by big three. I really think people have forgotten that 1 billion dollars is a lot of money. Losing 14 billion annually can't be a recipe for a company at 1 Trillion valuation.
I have sold everything, paid off my margin debt and bought energy stocks, copper stocks, biotech, fintech, e commerce. In other words either supply shortage companies or uncorreltated to AI trade.
I ask you to check the bear case. And if you're not convinced, hopefully the AI trade would be as profitable for you as it was for me.
Link to YouTube video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xE\_6zNGNYds
Link to helium article:
https://valuechainasia.com/articles/technology/tsmc-helium-shortage-semiconductor-supply-chain-2026
Link to bromine article:
Link to canceled data centers article:
Link to copper article:
Link to rare earths article: