Key insights
- Analysis of congressional trading disclosures for SNOW reveals a hypothetical +37% median return if bought on the disclosure date and sold 90 days later, outperforming SPY. The win rate was 100% across 8 trades since Feb 2025. However, the sample size is small, and the disclosure lag means the information is already dated, limiting its predictive power. This suggests potential market inefficiency but doesn't guarantee future profitability.
Ran an analysis on congressional trading disclosures for SNOW. If you bought on the day the trade became public and sold 90 days later, across 8 trades since Feb 2025:
- Median return: +37% * vs SPY: +32% * Win rate: 100%
Last disclosed buy: June 2025
This is post-disclosure, not the original transaction date, so this is publicly available information, not insider trading. The disclosure lag is typically 30-45 days after the actual trade.
Worth noting 8 trades is a small sample. But the consistency is hard to ignore.
Positions: none.