Key insights
- Rising energy prices due to the Iran war are expected to significantly increase fertilizer costs, potentially leading to a 12% year-over-year rise in global food prices. This inflationary pressure could negatively impact consumer spending and corporate earnings, creating headwinds for US equities. Futures are currently down about 0.5%.
WTI is running !!! now at $114.30
futures for the indexes aren't too bad yet , down about 1/2% each.
Surging energy prices amid the Iran war are worrying Wall Street, but UBS warned that higher food costs could follow.
Since the start of the conflict in the Middle East, international Brent crude futures have surged 50%, while West Texas Intermediate futures have gained 66%. UBS economist Arend Kapteyn said the energy jump is subsequently pushing up fertilizer costs, particularly with the Strait of Hormuz being a key passage for the transport of components like urea and ammonia.
When fertilizers become more expensive, costs can get passed down to food buyers, the economist said.
“Rising energy prices are spilling over into fertilizer markets, which in turn is a key driver of global food prices,” Kapteyn wrote in a note to clients late last month.
He said supply chain risks were “amplified” by the disruption to production of natural gas, which accounts for 60% to 80% over overall fertilizer costs. Last month, Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, home to the world’s largest liquefied natural gas export facility, was the target of Iranian missile attacks.
With recent energy price hikes, Kapteyn said to expect fertilizer prices to rise 48% year over year, up from the current run rate of about 32%.
In turn, global food prices could grow 12% year over year, the economist found.
Happy Easter Holiday to all !