Key insights
- Russia forecasts a slight increase in oil production to 515 million tons in 2026. However, Ukrainian strikes on Russian infrastructure have reduced export capacity by 1 million barrels per day. While the production increase is marginal, the export constraints could put upward pressure on global oil prices, indirectly impacting US inflation and potentially leading to a slightly bearish sentiment in US equities.
Investing.com -- Russia expects oil production to reach 515 million metric tons this year, up from 512 million tons in 2025, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Friday.
The forecast translates to approximately 10.3 million barrels per day.
Novak told reporters that the government is working to increase fuel supplies to the domestic market.
Industry sources said last week that Russian oil output cuts were imminent after Ukraine’s strikes on port infrastructure, pipelines and refineries reduced export capability by 1 million barrels per day, representing a fifth of total capacity.
When asked about current oil output, Novak declined to comment and directed the question to Russia’s energy ministry.
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