Key insights
- SpaceX's IPO reveals strong Starlink growth and profitability, but significant losses in its AI and Space segments are dragging down overall earnings. Starlink's high EBITDA margins and subscriber growth are positives, but the company's heavy investment in xAI is a major concern. The IPO's success hinges on whether investors believe Starlink can offset the losses from other ventures, making the valuation questionable.
The most hyped IPO in history just became real. Ticker: SPCX.
Exchange: Nasdaq.
Date: June 12, 2026.
Valuation: up to $2 trillion.
But before you throw your life savings at this, let's actually look at what's inside that prospectus.
THE FINANCIALS — What SpaceX Actually Earns
Full year 2025 consolidated revenue: $18.67 billion. But here's the catch — operating loss was $2.59 billion, and that loss deepened to $1.94 billion in just Q1 2026 alone.
Revenue grew 33% from 2024 to 2025, and was up 15% YoY in Q1 2026. So growth is real but so are the losses.
THE REAL BUSINESS Starlink is Carrying Everyone
Let's be clear about something. SpaceX isn't really a rocket company anymore. It's a satellite internet company that also builds rockets.
Starlink accounted for $11.4 billion of SpaceX's revenue in 2025 up 83% year-over-year from $7.7B in 2024.
Analysts project that climbs to roughly $20 billion in 2026, about 79% of total revenue.
Starlink's adjusted EBITDA margin? A jaw-dropping 63%. For the full year 2025, Starlink operating income grew 120% YoY to $4.42 billion.
Starlink now has 10.3 million subscribers as of March 2026 — up from just 5 million a year ago. The company operates approximately 9,600 satellites, roughly 65% of all active satellites on Earth.
That subscriber doubling in a single year is extraordinary. This is one of the fastest-growing tech businesses on the planet.
THE PROBLEM: xAI Is a Cash Furnace
After SpaceX merged with xAI in February 2026, everything changed on the books.
The AI segment (now called SpaceXAI) posted a loss from operations of $2.47 billion in Q1 2026 alone and lost a total of $6.36 billion across 2025. The Space segment also lost $662 million in Q1 2026.
The profit picture is brutal: Starlink's $1.19 billion operating profit in Q1 is being overwhelmed for every dollar Starlink earns, the rest of the group is committing roughly two dollars of losses and capex.
So yes Starlink is an absolute beast. But it's funding Starship development, thousands of new satellites, and now an AI supercomputer empire.
THE VALUATION: Is $1.75 Trillion Insane?
At $1.75 trillion, SpaceX is targeting a raise of $75 billion the largest IPO in human history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's 2020 record.
Run the math:
2025 Revenue: ~$18.7B → That's a ~94x Price/Sales ratio
Operating loss: -$2.59B in 2025. The company is NOT profitable on a net basis.
Even Starlink alone (the good bit) at $7.2B EBITDA gives you a ~243x EBITDA multiple at $1.75T
For context, Nvidia the hottest growth stock on the planet right now trades at roughly 35x revenue. SpaceX is asking for nearly 3x that multiple while losing money overall.
The company claims its quantifiable total addressable market is $28.5 trillion — which they call the largest in human history. Whether that's vision or salesmanship is the key question.
Key RISKS You Need to Know
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You get no real vote. Dual-class share structure means public investors get Class A shares, but Elon Musk retains full voting control. He won't sell a single share in the IPO. You're along for the ride on his terms.
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Starship is still unproven at scale. SpaceX spent $3 billion on Starship development in 2025 and $930 million in Q1 2026 alone. The whole long-term thesis depends on Starship dramatically cutting launch costs which hasn't happened yet.
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The xAI bet is a wildcard. The AI segment is burning billions. It could be transformative or it could drag the company for years.
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IPO pop trap. Historically, the most hyped IPOs often underperform in the first year after listing as institutional investors take profits.
THE BULL CASE
Starlink's subscriber growth is compounding at a rate rarely seen in any industry
65% of all Earth's active satellites. Genuine monopoly if successful, makes every competitor in the launch industry irrelevant
The xAI/Colossus supercomputing infrastructure could be the AWS of the AI era
Government contracts + commercial + consumer massively diversified revenue streams coming
SHOULD YOU SUBSCRIBE?
Subscribe if: You're investing for a 7–10 year horizon, believe in Musk's execution track record (he's been right before), and can stomach extreme volatility and zero shareholder say in decisions.
Skip if: You're expecting a quick pop, need near-term profitability, are uncomfortable with Musk political risk, or think a 94x revenue multiple is unjustifiable for a money-losing company.
The honest take: Starlink alone might justify a $400–500B valuation at current growth rates. You're paying the extra $1.3 trillion for the vision Starship, AI, Mars. That's not investing. That's betting on a moonshot. Literally hail mary kind of situation.
SpaceX IPO is June 12 on Nasdaq (SPCX). Starlink is a genuine cash machine growing 83% YoY with 63% EBITDA margins. But xAI is bleeding billions, the valuation is extreme at 94x revenue, and Musk controls everything.
Subscribe with long-term, eyes-open conviction — or watch from the sidelines.
What's your take — are you in on SPCX or passing?