Key insights
- The Trump administration has reportedly begun initial discussions for a potential peace deal with Iran, including terms on nuclear activities, missile programs, and proxy group funding. While positive, the expectation of continued fighting and the involvement of specific envoys suggest a complex and potentially volatile negotiation process. This news could moderately reduce geopolitical risk premiums in oil prices and offer a slight boost to risk sentiment in US equities.
BREAKING: The Trump Administration has begun "initial discussions" on what a potential peace deal with Iran might look like, per Axios.
US officials are planning the below terms:
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No missile program for five years
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Zero uranium enrichment
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Decommissioning of the reactors at the Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow nuclear facilities
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Strict outside observation protocols around the creation and use of centrifuges and related machinery that could advance a nuclear weapons program
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Arms control treaties with regional countries that include a missile cap no higher than 1,000
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End of financing for Iranian proxy groups
US officials said the expectation is there will still be 2-3 additional weeks of fighting and Trump's envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are involved in the discussions.
https://www.axios.com/2026/03/21/trump-peace-deal-iran-kushner-witkoff