Key insights
- The author expresses concerns about a potential economic crisis worse than 2008, citing a weakening US economy (deteriorating job market, rising debt defaults), slowing growth in China and Europe, unsustainable debt-to-GDP ratios, Fed balance sheet reduction, and high market valuations unjustified by current AI profitability. The author believes persistent high inflation coupled with the Iran conflict could trigger a significant downturn.
Even tho i'm benefiting from the current situation with puts option im starting to be worried over a few things and i'm wondering if we dont under estimate the consequences. -Us economy is doing poorly: job market is getting worse every months, debt default increase (car, student, credit cards,private credit, Bnpl) -China economy slowing down. -Eu economy not doing much better with Germany, France. -Crazy Gdp/Debt ratio that will only accelerate looking at the grow on bond yields. -Fed: new fedchair that want to reduce the balance sheet. -Markets P.E ratio are way too high and not justified as A.I is not profitable yet for many of these tech company. I'm concerned that an higher inflation for an extended period of time with the iran conflict would trigger a way more massive crisis than what we seen in 2008. Toughts?