Key insights
- Bernstein reports strong Q1 HBM export growth for Samsung and SK Hynix, with HBM prices remaining stable despite conventional memory price volatility. They are structurally constructive on Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, anticipating strong HBM demand and memory prices. This positive outlook for key memory players suggests continued strength in the semiconductor sector, potentially benefiting US-listed Micron.
Investing.com - Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix posted stronger-than-expected high-bandwidth memory export growth in the first quarter of 2026, according to data released by Bernstein.
Overall HBM exports in March grew further from strong February levels, with first-quarter exports rising 15% quarter-over-quarter despite weak January performance.
Samsung’s March HBM exports remained solid and tracked in line with Bernstein’s estimates. Exports from South Chungcheong Province, where Samsung packages HBM, increased further month-over-month on a seasonal basis, with first-quarter exports up 19% quarter-over-quarter. Regression analysis suggests first-quarter HBM revenue rose 17% quarter-over-quarter, in line with Bernstein’s forecast.
SK Hynix exports continued to be very strong and above expectations. March exports from North Chungcheong and Icheon rose 42% quarter-over-quarter, bringing first-quarter exports up 13% quarter-over-quarter. Regression analysis predicts first-quarter HBM revenue grew 16% quarter-over-quarter, better than the decline Bernstein had modeled.
HBM prices have been insulated from conventional memory price volatility, the data confirmed. Conventional memory prices surged in recent months, but HBM prices, as suggested by value per weight, largely stayed in the same range.
Neither Samsung nor SK Hynix showed signs of average selling price increases from HBM4 in March, though Samsung’s trend over recent months has been generally flat or positive while SK Hynix’s has been declining.
Bernstein expects strong HBM demand growth over the next two years and stronger-than-expected memory prices in the second quarter of 2026.
The firm remains structurally constructive on Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron Technology but negative on Kioxia on China competition and valuation.
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