Key insights
- Joby Aviation (JOBY) shows signs of a potential rally after a strong earnings report, beating revenue forecasts and reiterating guidance. The company is advancing regulatory approvals and participating in a White House program, aiming for commercial launch this year. While near-term price targets are around $18, the long-term potential in the burgeoning eVTOL market, estimated at $1.5 trillion, suggests significant upside for the stock.
Last year, stocks with exposure to the electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) industry were too hot to touch. Leading names such as Joby Aviation (JOBY 3.25%) soared to all-time highs. However, seen then, enthusiasm about eVTOL stocks has experienced a crash landing.
Recently, though, Joby has started climbing again. This could mark the start of a further rally this year. Moreover, in the long term, Joby could even have the potential to be a ten-bagger.
After climbing to prices nearing $21 per share last fall, Joby Aviation shares fell by nearly two-thirds during late 2025 and early 2026. However, thanks to a well-received quarterly earnings report, Joby has been bouncing back. High losses persisted during Q1, but Joby beat on revenue, with $24 million in sales beating forecasts of just $20 million.
Management also reiterated 2026 guidance and plans to commence its first commercial launch this year. Although it's unclear whether this positive news can propel Joby forward in the immediate term, the company's near- and long-term forecasts suggest it could meet them.
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On the regulatory front, Joby Aviation is leading the pack, having already reached the Type Inspection Authorization stage. The company is also participating in the White House's Integration Pilot Program, further fast-tracking Joby's U.S. commercial passenger service launch this year. Given how much shares have soared on recent news, it's not far-fetched to see the U.S. launch, plus Joby's anticipated launch of its Dubai air taxi service, drive the stock toward the high end of sell-side price targets, $18 per share.
However, in time, shares could climb to even loftier altitudes. According to Morgan Stanley's white paper on the air mobility industry, the total addressable market for eVTOLs could reach $1.5 trillion in 2040. Even if Joby captures a small share of the overall market, this could propel its market cap from $11.3 billion to over $100 billion, nearly 10 times its current stock price.