Key insights
- Fed officials are signaling that rate cuts may be off the table due to persistent inflation and a resilient labor market. This shift away from the expectation of rate cuts introduces uncertainty and a data-dependent approach, potentially leading to increased market volatility and downward pressure on equities as borrowing costs may remain elevated for longer.
A few weeks ago the expectation was clearly rate cuts. Now Fed officials are openly saying the next move could be higher, lower, or no change at all.
What’s driving it:
- Inflation still elevated (oil, tariffs) * Labor market softening, but not breaking
Feels like the market is losing that “rate cuts are coming” certainty and moving into a much more data-dependent phase.
Came across this on blossom and thought it was a pretty meaningful shift in tone, curious how people are positioning around this, still expecting cuts later this year, or is the Fed done for now?
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-officials-signal-that-rate-cuts-may-be-over-76891741