Key insights
- Moderna's Q1 earnings are expected to show a sharp revenue decline. Investors are focused on revenue guidance, the rollout of new vaccines like mRESVIA and mCOMBRIAX, and pipeline updates, especially the melanoma cancer vaccine developed with Merck. Analysts have lowered EPS estimates, and the consensus price target implies downside, suggesting a slightly negative near-term impact on the broader market.
Moderna Inc. reports first-quarter earnings Friday morning before the market opens, with investors bracing for a sharp sequential revenue drop as the biotech company works to pivot from its pandemic-era business model to a diversified vaccine franchise.
Analysts expect a loss of $2.02 per share on revenue of $251.76 million—a 63% decline from the $678 million Moderna reported in the fourth quarter. The expected loss would represent a slight improvement from last quarter’s $2.11 per share loss, which beat estimates by nearly 20%.
Wall Street has grown more cautious heading into the print. EPS estimates have fallen 36% over the past week, while revenue estimates have declined roughly 5% in the same period. The stock trades at $45.72, down from its 52-week high of $59.55 but well above its low of $22.28, giving the company an $18.13 billion market capitalization.
Analysts rate Moderna a hold, with a consensus price target of $41.42—implying roughly 9% downside from current levels. Of the 23 analysts covering the stock, only three rate it a buy while three recommend selling. Barclays maintained its hold rating earlier this month but raised its price target to $48 from $25.
What Investors Are Watching
Revenue guidance will be critical as Moderna navigates the post-pandemic transition. The company’s mRESVIA RSV vaccine has captured roughly 34% market share in the 65-and-older segment, but investors will want to see whether that momentum can offset declining COVID vaccine sales.
The European Commission’s April 21 approval of mCOMBRIAX, the world’s first mRNA combination vaccine for influenza and COVID-19, offers a potential growth driver, and management commentary on the commercial rollout strategy will be closely monitored.
Pipeline updates are also in focus, particularly on the melanoma cancer vaccine developed with Merck that showed a 49% reduction in death rates over five years in data released in January. Any updates on the timing of Phase 3 readouts could provide a catalyst.
Moderna has also pushed ahead with its bird flu vaccine trial despite losing hundreds of millions in federal funding, enrolling roughly 4,000 participants in a late-stage study that underscores the company’s commitment to pandemic preparedness even amid political headwinds around mRNA technology.
The February quarter marked Moderna’s last period before the company begins executing on its stated goal of achieving up to 10% revenue growth in 2026 and reaching cash breakeven by 2028. Whether management can articulate a credible path from today’s $251 million quarterly revenue run rate to sustainable profitability may determine if the stock can break out of its current trading range.
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