Key insights
- An analyst is tracking insider purchases via SEC Form 4 filings, focusing on discretionary buys by top executives over $100k. While much is noise, significant discretionary purchases, like those by GGG's CFO and EXEL's CEO, have preceded positive stock movements. This method highlights the importance of timely information, suggesting potential short-term bullish signals for specific stocks when executives make significant, non-scheduled buys, especially during market uncertainty.
Started in February after I noticed I kept missing insider purchase filings until they showed up in the news two weeks later. Set up an agent that scrapes SEC Form 4s every evening and filters for open market purchases over $100k by top executives.
Most of it is noise. Lots of scheduled plan purchases that don't tell you anything.
But when a CEO makes a discretionary buy outside their plan, especially right now, I pay attention. The GGG CFO bought $340k at around $78 a share on March 11, stock was down 15% from its January high. Trading at $95 now. The CEO at EXEL filed $1.2M on April 8 at around $22 a share, right before positive trial data dropped.
The timing on that EXEL buy was suspicious enough that I got in early. Not a huge position, just $8k, but still.
I'm not claiming this is some undiscovered edge. The data is public and plenty of people track it. But speed matters. Getting the alert the same evening vs reading about it on Seeking Alpha three days later is a real difference when you're trying to act on it before the crowd.
I have no good way to filter out the scheduled plan buys programmatically yet. Basically eyeballing each one, which defeats half the purpose.
Hit rate is maybe 1 in 8 for meaningful price movement within 90 days.