Been staring at this one all week and I keep landing in different places. The fundamental case is legitimately hard to dismiss. 85.2% revenue growth, 65.6% operating margin, $46B in free cash flow. ROE at 114%. The CUDA moat and data center buildout argument - that this is a platform business with years of compounding ahead - isn't unreasonable... but then I look at FCF yield: 0.92%. If you use Ackman-style logic, you need at least 5% FCF yield before a concentrated position is justified. NVDA is at one-fifth of that. P/B at 25.70x, P/S at 19.82x. The stock is priced for an outcome that has to keep compounding at this rate for years without a hiccup.
The other thing I keep coming back to: macro-oriented analysis (Dalio-style) lands this at half-weight while quality-oriented analysis (Buffett/Ackman style) loves it. That's a 30-point spread between the two lenses. The quality case is strong. The macro case says even great businesses get crushed when multiples compress.
That's where I'm stuck.