Key insights
- The post discusses the valuation of Aurora Innovations (AUR), a pre-revenue autonomous trucking company. It questions the justification for a $20B+ valuation given the current market cap of $13B and lack of profitability. The post explores the number of revenue-generating trucks needed to justify the valuation, highlighting the speculative nature of the company's future growth. This has a slightly negative influence as it questions the valuation of a growth stock.
Some of you may already know it here, I see it come up a lot in my feed. Aurora Innovations (AUR), a leader in industrial robotic driving tech. Thought I’d learn more and begin a discussion to see your opinion on this company’s value. It’s pre revenue right now and is working on scaling. Not sure if dilution is in the picture or what they’re plannin on doin to fund their expansion. But they got 500 trucks online with a a major partner already and will probably keep signing a lot more QoQ. Growth looks probable here. Background from Waymo as well.
The company is worth $13B right now and not turning a profit.
Let’s say we look at a speculative market cap of $20B+, How many revenue generating trucks would they need on the roads for them to turn profitable and earn their multiple or future multiple?