Key insights
- Goldman Sachs projects rapid growth in China's robotaxi fleet, driven by faster deployment and clearer expansion plans. They initiated 'Buy' ratings on Pony AI and WeRide, anticipating significant revenue growth. While focused on China, the report suggests potential positive sentiment for the broader autonomous vehicle sector, which could indirectly benefit US-listed companies in the long run.
Investing.com -- Goldman Sachs raised its China robotaxi fleet forecast on Friday, now projecting the country’s fleet will nearly triple from 5,000 vehicles in 2025 to 14,000 by the end of 2026. The bank forecasts 3.1 million units by 2035, representing 36% of all ride-sharing vehicles.
The revised fleet estimates, up 7% to 25% from prior forecasts across the 2025-2035 period, reflect smoother-than-expected deployment and clearer guidance from operators on their 2026 expansion targets.
“Commercialization is speeding up, with several players achieving city-level break-even,” Goldman analysts led by Allen Chang said in a note.
The bank also introduced overseas and robotruck fleet forecasts, projecting that Chinese robotaxi companies will increasingly rely on international markets for growth, with overseas fleets accounting for 29%, 9%, and 7% of the global fleets of WeRide, Pony AI, and Baidu respectively by 2026, rising to 43%, 37%, and 38% by 2035.
“Robotrucks could become a long-term revenue contributor. We model that China’s robotruck fleet will grow notably from 8k to 760k in 2026-35E,” the analysts noted.
In separate notes, the Wall Street firm initiated coverage on Pony AI and WeRide shares at Buy.
On Pony AI, the bank reiterated its Buy rating on its American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) with a 12-month price target of $30, and initiated coverage on the Hong Kong-listed H-share at Buy with a target of HK$234.
“As the leading supplier in autonomous mobility, we forecast Pony AI revenues to grow at 100% CAGR in 2025-30E,” the analysts said.
They expect this growth to be driven by fleet expansion toward 3,000 vehicles by end-2026, entry into more than 20 cities across China and overseas, and a shift in its business model toward fleet-owned arrangements where asset owners bear the capital expenditure.
Goldman forecasts the company’s net income will turn positive in 2029, reaching $1.3 billion by 2032.
For WeRide, Goldman assumed the stock coverage at Buy with a price target of HK$54.23. Analysts forecast WeRide’s revenues to grow at an 80% CAGR over 2025-2030, supported by its global fleet expansion from 2,800 vehicles in 2026 to 415,000 by 2032.
“WeRide is a leader in autonomous driving technology, offering comprehensive solutions across vehicles including Robotaxi, Robobus, Robovan and Robosweeper,” they said.
The company has already launched public robotaxi rides in Dubai and Riyadh, and is targeting fully driverless passenger services in Abu Dhabi in the first half of 2026.
Goldman also pointed out that WeRide is moving toward an asset-light model, keeping vehicle spending off its balance sheet to accelerate deployment.