Key insights
- Wall Street analysts are becoming more bullish on gold, anticipating a rebound driven by potential Middle East peace developments. Citi Research and Barclays have raised price targets and recommended adding exposure to gold and silver, citing easing geopolitical tensions as a key catalyst. While gold's recent rally was interrupted by conflict, a de-escalation could relieve selling pressure from central banks seeking liquidity. This shift in sentiment towards a safe-haven asset could see some capital rotate from riskier assets like US equities, though the direct impact on
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Wall Street analysts are taking a shine to gold.
They're doing so after a blazing hot run lost steam. Gold futures prices are flat in 2026, recently trading around $4,300 after sliding from record highs of almost $5,600. (Silver, another big 2025 gainer that has retreated, recently traded around $69, well off highs near $122.) While some on the Street were just last week warning of near-term risk, there are now calls for a recovery as investors eye the possibility that hostilities in the Middle East could ease—or cease.
Gold was among the best-performing major asset classes in 2025, rising more than 65% and outpacing U.S. stocks' more-than-15% gain.
A potential peace deal, set to be signed by the U.S. and Iran on Friday, has inspired analysts to recalibrate their bearish stances on gold. Citi Research, for example, cut its three-month outlook on gold last week, then yesterday boosted its price target by $500 to $4,500 per troy ounce because movement toward peace "is a big deal" that sets the stage for higher metals prices. It also upgraded its short-term view on silver, saying prices could rise to $70, from $60 previously.
To be sure, gold's furious rally last year transformed it into something of a momentum trade—one that was interrupted by the conflict in Iran. As oil stopped flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, some countries' central banks sold the precious metal for liquidity reasons.1 An ending of the conflict could relieve those pressures.
"We had been concerned about a gold and silver sell-off near-term owing to the ongoing conflict," Max Layton, Citi's global head of commodities research, and his team wrote in a Monday report.
Barclays' cross-asset research team said in a Monday report that now was the "time to add exposure" to the yellow metal. "Gold's correction looks more like a reset than the end of the story, and we look for a rebound ahead," Barclays FX Strategist Lefteris Farmakis and his team said.
Citi's now higher near-term price targets for both gold and silver suggest little upside, or about 1% to 5%. Its six-to-12-month forecast of $5,000, however, implies a 16% rise from recent levels.