Key insights
- The analysis suggests Cadeler is undervalued due to its fleet value exceeding its market cap, despite negative FCF and debt. The debt is funding a large backlog, with revenue expected to double in two years. While primarily a European company, increased investment in renewable energy and offshore wind projects globally could indirectly benefit US-based companies in the same sector, leading to a slightly positive influence.
Cadeler owns 10 working vessels right now, with 12 expected by mid-2027. They install offshore wind turbines for developers like Ørsted.
Their Net PP&E alone is worth €2.95B as of December 2025, while their total market cap is only ~€2.2B, €700M less.
The market is discounting them for negative FCF and their €1.5B debt. But that debt funded a €2.8B backlog with 2027 nearly fully booked. Revenue is expected to double in the next two years. Cash reserves sit at a healthy €151M.
To me, this looks like a promising asset play. Yes, they have run up a bit since their 2025 lows, but it still seems largely undervalued knowing what they expect to do in the next two years.
Thoughts? Happy to discuss as always, would like to know if I missed anything too.
Note: if you are looking at their trailing PE ratio, it is distorted by a one-off Ørsted cancellation fee. I think they trade at closer to ~10 PE ratio as of now
Full analysis: https://economiyaki.substack.com/p/cadeler-the-biggest-offshore-wind?r=2wzuop