Key insights
- The author draws parallels between the cybersecurity sector's recovery after initial AI disruption fears and the current SaaS environment. They suggest that AI will augment rather than replace existing SaaS platforms like ServiceNow and Salesforce. The analysis implies a potential buying opportunity in beaten-down SaaS stocks as the market realizes incumbents are integrating AI, similar to the cybersecurity sector's experience.
from january to early april CRWD and PANW got hit hard. the story was simple - AI finds vulns, AI replaces security vendors, cyber margins shrink.
then on april 7 anthropic launched glasswing.
and the whole point was the partner list. crowdstrike, palo alto, microsoft, cisco, google, apple. not AI-based startups. not chatgpt wrappers. the actual incumbents.
AI labs werent replacing the security layer. they were weaponizing it.
PANW and CRWD broke out of their april lows by may 20. basically erased the whole panic.
now software might be in the same phase.
servicenow is still down hard YTD. salesforce too. IGV well below its highs. current narrative: AI agents kill SaaS seats.
but look at what servicenow is actually doing. their AI layer embeds into the workflow, doesnt bypass it. permissions, data, integrations, audit logs, approvals, customer records - all that still has to live somewhere.
the playbook starts to feel familiar. first market prices in displacement. then data shows the incumbents arent getting replaced, theyre absorbing the new layer.
cyber bottomed at week 8 and fully recovered by week 14. saas is past week 12 and the recovery still hasnt fired. data inversion just starting.
am i missing something or is this literally the same setup?