Key insights
- The article presents a bullish case for Major Drilling (MDI.TO), a drilling contractor poised to benefit from increased mining activity driven by Western governments' push for domestic critical mineral supply chains and rising commodity prices. Anticipated revenue growth and strategic investments in preparation for increased demand suggest a positive outlook for the company and potentially increased investment in the mining sector, indirectly influencing US equities.
The West is scrambling. China banned exports of rare earths, germanium and gallium.
Western governments are throwing billions at domestic critical mineral supply chains. Someone has to drill for all of it. That someone is Major Drilling.
Why MDI?
MDI is the world’s largest specialized drilling contractor. They don’t own the mines, they drill the holes. Pure pick & shovel. No commodity price risk, no mine development risk. They just get paid per meter drilled, whoever wins the resource race.
The setup is perfect right now!
TSX mining companies raised $16B in 2025, up 53% YoY. Gold at all-time highs. Copper near records. Western governments mandating domestic critical mineral sourcing. Every single one of these trends means more drill programs. More drill programs means more revenue for MDI.
The numbers back it up.
$870M annualized revenue, growing 15-20% YoY. Net cash of $40M. Zero dependency on debt. Share buybacks running. Last cycle peak was 20+ CAD, on far less revenue than today.
Current price: 18.15 CAD.
Q3 looked weak, that’s the opportunity!
MDI deliberately sacrificed Q3 margins to hire crews, service rigs and stock supplies ahead of what management calls “a much busier 2026.”
January already ramped faster than last year.
The pain is priced in. The gain isn’t.
TLDR: Western critical mineral rush is just starting. MDI drills the holes. 27 CAD price target in the bull case. NFA.