Key insights
- The author expresses concern that markets are underestimating the economic impact of a potential Iran war, particularly on future economic data releases. Rising oil prices and job insecurity are cited as potential headwinds, suggesting a gloomy economic outlook and potential downward revisions to economic data. This could negatively impact US equities.
Wondering if investors/market underestimating the impact of Iran war? The most recent economic data seems relatively in-line/stable whatever you want to call it. However, I don’t think many - well of course the business tv talking heads/pumpers - are looking ahead to next quarter’s economic data, or the quarters to follow. Not that I entirely trust the released figures, as they are often “revised” downward after the fact. But with oil over a hundred bucks, gas at the pumps, job insecurity etc. etc., isn’t is plausible the forward looking numbers are going to be downright nasty and the economic outlook quite gloomy??
Interested in other’s thoughts and perspective.