Key insights
- Analysis of CoreWeave's SEC filings reveals high debt service obligations relative to projected revenue and past technical defaults waived by Blackstone. The $66B+ backlog is contingent on sustained AI demand. While covenant tests are delayed until 2027, the financial health of a major AI infrastructure provider raises concerns about potential systemic risk if AI demand weakens, creating a slightly bearish signal for US equities.
So I took a closer look at CoreWeave’s SEC filings and credit agreements. Turns out there were some details that didn’t make it into the IPO coverage:
- They’ve got $2B in debt service obligations against $2.2B in revenue for H1 2025. * There were some technical defaults last year (March 2025), but they weren’t about missing payments – more like admin issues during their European expansion. * Blackstone is both the lead lender and an equity holder, and they chose to waive those defaults instead of calling them. * The real covenant tests don’t even start until April 2027. * What's up with that $66B+ backlog? It’s all dependent on AI demand staying strong.
The stress test hasn't happened yet. Happy to share the specifics if anyone wants to dig in.