Key insights
- The author believes a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will cause oil prices to surge, triggering stagflation and a significant downturn in the SPY. They cite parallels to 2008 and warn against complacency, advocating for put positions. The author expresses strong bearish sentiment, anticipating a substantial market correction due to geopolitical risks and economic vulnerabilities.
Yeah, so the straight of Hormuz is under active blockade. Oil tankers have a max speed of a fast cycle, the last tankers will start arriving shortly, and Oil is going to go to the moon.
As for what happens to the SPY, it is an elevator ride down likely, the market will get Viet Konged nothing is priced in.
Translation: We are cooked, your calls are cooked, our boy vloker is laughing so hard his dentures shot out.
This is a classic stagflation play, high energy prices, a weak economy, debt bubbles, private credit funds closing doors, this sounds a lot like 2008, you can't print your way out of this without becoming 1930's Germany.
"This is going to be a beautiful quarter for put holders and an extinction-level event for anyone who bought calls because "it already priced in bro." from 18 days agoNothing is priced in. Nothing has ever been priced in. The market prices things in the same way I read terms and conditions."
A hamster beat this subreddit and you guys made him king for a day, I am not celebrating, this means we are all cooked.
Have a good weekend
Positions: SPY 540P 4/17, XLE puts, and emotional damage, economic damage, and an escape plan.
Post from 18 days ago: