Key insights
- A custom AI tool analyzing portfolio holdings based on macro data, ticker data, and congressional trading activity suggests bullish signals for MSFT, INTU, and GOOG. The tool weighs institutional scores and insider trading data, highlighting congressional buys as a positive indicator. INTU is noted for its undervaluation and strong insider accumulation, presenting the best risk/reward profile.
Hey valueinvestors,
Not investment advice obviously
I've been messing around with Claude Skills recently and wanted to see if I could set up some recurring analysis on my current holdings based on Macro Economic Data, specific ticker data, and insider data (congressional / senate buying and selling).
I ran it against my own portfolio and then a handful of tickers that get thrown around in this sub all the time. It basically uses a tool that does a bunch of value analysis on tickers and spits out a grade, then grabs the insider data analysis and grades and then weighs them 50/50.
Nothing revolutionary, but what I got back was pretty interesting...
MSFT (76.5/100 - BUY)
7 congressional buys in 90 days. Rep. Valadao, Sens. Kelly and Cornyn, and others all bought in the last 3 months.
- Institutional score: 89/100 (A grade, Fair Value) - Congressional confirmation: 7 buys (very strong) - Assessment: This is institutional quality with insider conviction. Enterprise software moat, Azure dominance, AI positioning (OpenAI partnership). Barbell stock—quality + insider confirmation.
INTU (68.0/100 - BUY) — Best Risk/Reward
This one surprised me. 6 congressional buys + UNDERVALUED label.
- Institutional score: 82/100 (B grade, UNDERVALUED) - Congressional confirmation: 6 buys (strong) - Assessment: This is the interesting one. Intuit is institutionally solid but trading at discount valuations. And insiders are quietly accumulating. Seems like conviction on a mispriced asset.
GOOG (66.5/100 - BUY)
5 congressional buys, solid institutional metrics, but congressional activity is lighter than MSFT/INTU.
- Institutional score: 85/100 (B grade, Fair Value) - Congressional confirmation: 5 buys (moderate-to-strong) - Assessment: Quality play. Cloud growth, AI leadership (Gemini). Congress backing it but at lower intensity than MSFT. Possible reason: GOOG is already well-known and heavily held; less need for insiders to signal.
META (43.0/100 - HOLD, NOT BUY)
This is where it gets interesting: Only 1 congressional buy in 90 days. And the stock is rated OVERVALUED.
- Institutional score: 68/100 (C grade, OVERVALUED) - Congressional confirmation: 1 buy (minimal) - Assessment: Social media/advertising platform with AI aspirations. User engagement solid, but regulatory risk, TikTok competition, and heavy capital intensity of AI investments hurt institutional confidence. Insiders seem to be avoiding it.
1 congressional buy out of 90 days is basically no signal. Meanwhile, MSFT, INTU, and GOOG all have 5-7 buys. Insiders don't trust this valuation.
RDDT (22.5/100 - SELL)
Zero congressional buys in 90 days. Weak institutional metrics (D grade, OVERVALUED).
- Institutional score: 42/100 (D grade, OVERVALUED) - Congressional confirmation: 0 buys (no signal; only coincidental 1 unrelated transaction) - Assessment: Recent IPO, unproven business model, minimal profitability. Speculative. Insiders completely absent.
TL;DR
Quality tech stocks with insider conviction: - MSFT: 7 buys, A-grade institution, BUY signal - INTU: 6 buys, B-grade UNDERVALUED, BUY signal - GOOG: 5 buys, B-grade institution, BUY signal
Hyped or overvalued stocks that insiders avoid: - META: 1 buy, C-grade OVERVALUED, HOLD signal - RDDT: 0 buys, D-grade OVERVALUED, SELL signal
The weak signal: - CSU: 3 buys, C-grade, WATCH signal (marginal)
Insiders have better information than us (legally). When they're not buying something that's overvalued per institutional metrics that's a yellow flag.
Anywho, I made the Skill open-source and am happy to post it if folks are interested.
UPDATE: Here is the skill for those interested - https://github.com/HYGz-builds/portfolio_analysis/