Key insights
- The author predicts a market crash based on technical indicators (RSI divergence, exhaustion gaps), low volume, and geopolitical factors (high oil prices). They anticipate SPY falling to 550-575 by year-end or potentially retesting 610 if the trendline breaks. Despite the short-term bearish outlook, they remain bullish on AI in the long run. The Fear and Greed Index is also cited as a contrarian indicator.
Fundamental Analysis:
Economic backdrop - 🥭 does not care about high oil prices or the midterms. He wants high oil prices and the strait closed so the USA can export oil to Europe and Asia. He does not care about the midterms because he is done with domestic policy after the 🅱️ig 🅱️eautiful 🅱️ill. Even without Congress, he can do whatever he wants with foreign policy.
Longer term outlook - This will be a short term crash in the secular bull market. A.I. is not a bubble; some of the companies suck and will die, but the buildout needs to happen to save the economy from demographic collapse.
Technical Analysis:
The rally has been on low declining volume, indicative of low conviction by big money. There are multiple points of bearish divergence on the RSI on the SPY weekly chart and multiple exhaustion gaps on the SPY daily chart. The lower trend line points to SPY 550 in July, SPY 560 in October, or SPY 575 in December. If SPY does not crash to the trend line, retesting the pre-liberation high at around 610 is likely.
Meme Analysis:
The fear and greed index reached 69.
Motivation:
I usually stick to shitposting, but this DD is for someone special.
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/s/2xGO4T7i05
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/s/k1cgsNYGgw
Position:
TLDR:
The market is at or near a top. SPY is headed towards either 550 in July, 560 in October, 575 in December, or 610 sometime during the year if the trend line fails.