Key insights
- A Reddit user's portfolio based on popular stock picks on r/stocks outperformed the S&P 500 (VUSA) by a significant margin over a 4-month period. This suggests that aggregated retail investor sentiment, as reflected on Reddit, can be a short-term indicator of market trends, although sustainability is uncertain. The portfolio's volatility and sensitivity to events like geopolitical tensions are also highlighted.
See my last update here
And OP here
Again, anyone wanting to follow along and/or join in can view my Trading 212 Pie (that's the trading app we use in the UK/Europe - it's basically our Robinhood)
Well, it's been an interesting few months. Almost immediately after I made my last post, Trump invaded Iran and the markets have been experiencing a bit of whiplash.
Things weren't looking positive for the Reddit portfolio, particularly around 26th March when suddenly we were down about 14%, but then April Fool's Day happened and I guess everyone said fuck it and piled back into the market, because we've been on a pretty speedy march upwards ever since.
In the last 3 months (pretty much since my last post when we were at £90), our peak was on Friday 15th May, when we had a return of a whopping 61.3%! Don't know what's going on with extended trading, but our current return is 53.8%. u/Accidental-Genius must be in tears with his inverse Reddit strategy. His comment thread here for anyone wondering why I'm throwing shade.
With our measly £100 initial investment, that brings our current total to £138.90, for a total actual return of 38.6%, or £38.71. This is compared with the benchmark of the S&P 500 (VUSA for us, since we're using GBP) which has returned 11.01%. So Reddit, so far, is outperforming the market by quite a wide margin.
As a reminder for those of you who can't be arsed looking at either of the previous posts, the target weight for each stock was dependent on the amount of mentions it received in another post by another user (linked in my OP). Also, before anyone asks I HAVE NOT ADDED ASTS INTO THE LIST BECAUSE I AM ALREADY INVESTED IN IT ELSEWHERE. It's basically flat if you're wondering.
So, without further ado, here's the list of our performers - I've highlighted particularly strong performers for some reason:
Kraken Robotics - £8.70 (-£1.28, -12.83%) - 8.26% / 10% target
Nebius Group NV - £20.74 (+£11.04, +113.81%) - 14.93% / 10% target
ASE Technology - £14.58 (+£6.59, +82.48%) - 10.5% / 8% target
Advanced Micro Devices - £11.63 (+£5.64, +94.16%) - 8.37% / 6% target
Celestica - £6.75 (+£0.76, +12.69%) - 4.86% / 6% target
Eos Energy Enterprises - £2.87 (-£3.12, -52.09%) - 2.07% / 6% target
First Solar - £5.83 (-£0.16, -2.67%) - 4.2% / 6% target
SELLAS Life Sciences - £10.68 (+£4.69, +78.30%) - 7.69% / 6% target
Amprius Technologies - £9.02 (+£4.03, +80.76%) - 6.49% / 5% target
Applied Digital - £5.79 (+£0.80, +16.03%) - 4.17% / 5% target
Intuitive Machines - £9.61 (+£4.62, +92.59%) - 6.92% / 5% target
IREN - £5.28 (+£0.29, +5.81%) - 3.8% / 5% target
Micron Technology - £10.61 (+£5.62, +112.63%) - 7.64% / 5% target
Ondas - £4.03 (-£0.96, -19.24%) - 2.9% / 5% target
Planet Labs - £8.18 (+£3.19, +63.93%) - 5.89% / 5% target
Rezolve AI - £2.84 (-£1.15, -28.82%) - 2.04% / 4% target
NuScale Power - £1.77 (-£1.23, -41.00%) - 1.27% / 3% target
As you can see, only 6 out of the 17 stocks are currently at a loss, with 8 of our picks sitting on high double digit returns. 3 of the losers also weren't mentioned very much, hence their low target weights.
As previously said, I'm letting the winners run and the losers die out so i don't intend on rebalancing at all.
What lesson should you take from this? Idk yet, we're not very far through the experiment and the title was just clickbait.
I'd post this on r/Stocks but I'm temporarily banned, so someone else can feel free to if you have the desire