Key insights
- The author posits that AI-driven job displacement and wage reduction could disrupt the consistent inflow of capital into the stock market via 401k contributions. Reduced contributions from a shrinking or lower-paid workforce could negatively impact market liquidity and valuations, as markets rely on new buyers in addition to earnings growth. This presents a bearish outlook for US equities.
Hear me out. Since the late 80s the Stoick market has had a constant influx of bids every payroll. This exists because employed contribute to their 401k and company matches. Were this cycle broken because the previous 401k contributors either became unemployed through AI replacement or wages reduces because of AI efficiencies then where would these previously relied on bidders come from?
Markets rely on earnings but also new buyers as it cannot exit purely on higher earnings. Don't see any conversation about this impact from AI.