Key insights
- Raymond James upgraded On Holding to Strong Buy citing attractive valuation and growth prospects, while downgrading Deckers to Outperform despite expecting positive earnings. The firm highlights a mixed consumer environment with tax refund tailwinds offset by rising gas prices. Companies like Deckers and Nike are seen benefiting from conservative tariff assumptions, potentially boosting gross margins.
Investing.com -- Raymond James has reshuffled its sportswear and softlines ratings ahead of first-quarter earnings, lifting On Holding to Strong Buy while stepping back on Deckers, as the firm navigates a consumer backdrop shaped by tax refund tailwinds and rising oil prices.
Analyst Rick Patel upgraded On Holding from Outperform to Strong Buy following recent share price weakness, arguing that growth remains intact and valuation has become compelling.
"Pricing power can offset tariff and freight headwinds," Patel writes, with the stock trading at roughly 10 times EV/EBITDA on his estimates after penalizing for stock-based compensation.
Raymond James set a $52 price target on the stock, implying approximately 15.5 times EV/EBITDA, supported by projected EBITDA growth of 22% in 2027.
The firm argues that the downgrade of Deckers to Outperform from Strong Buy is not a bearish call. Raymond James still sees the company beating on revenue and margins in the fourth quarter and projects fiscal year 2027 EPS of $7.40, above the Street's $7.30 estimate.
On the broader sector, Patel highlights a tug of war between consumer tailwinds and emerging headwinds.
Tax refunds issued through early April were up 14.5% year-over-year to $241 billion, supporting discretionary spending. But gasoline prices averaging $4.04 per gallon, up 34% year-over-year, represented roughly $3.7 billion of weekly wallet pressure.
Raymond James notes that most companies are modeling tariff rates of 15% or higher despite currently paying 10%, creating potential gross margin cushioning should the lower rate persist. Deckers, FIGS and Nike are seen as among those best positioned to benefit.