Stock Market Today (LIVE): Dow Futures Surge 1,100 Points as Trump Halts Iran Strikes

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9:35 am -- CAT +2.3%, JPM +1.9%

The Dow jumped 829 points Monday after President Trump announced "productive" talks with Iran, pausing planned strikes on energy infrastructure for five days. The news provided an immediate "off-ramp" for an oversold market, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rising as Brent crude fell 8% to $102. While Iranian state media disputed the "direct" nature of the talks, cyclical giants like Caterpillar (CAT +3.18%) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM +1.95%) surged 2%. The rally halted a four-week losing streak that had nearly pushed the major indices into formal 10% correction territory.

9:20 am

By Morning Show host Jim Gillies

Famed investor Peter Lynch is often credited with the investing aphorism, "Buy what you know." This is a (somewhat terrible) distillation of his marginally better observance that, "If you like the product, you'll probably like the stock."

I'm critical of these interpretations of Lynch for several reasons. First, they are astonishingly analysis-free. If the product you like provides 2% of a company's revenue and loses money for them in the process, who cares? Second, whither valuation? A company might be great -- but if it's priced for 50% annual growth in perpetuity, the stock's probably a bad bet. Third, this removes great companies with great services that you either don't understand, like, or are even exposed to from consideration. Fourth, people don't have to agree with you (i.e. maybe you're the only one who likes said product).

Obviously, analysis and stock selection are more nuanced than simple sentences.

6:00 am

By Morning Show host Tim BeyersTeam Rule Breakers

Over the weekend, Elon Musk took to the stage to announce TERAFAB. The idea: make a Gigafactory for chip manufacturing that scales to produce 1 terawatt of AI compute power every year.

For context, Musk told his audience that "the current output of AI compute is roughly 20 gigawatts per year." That means, Musk says, "the rest of the output from Earth is about 2% of what we need."

Let’s set aside for a minute that Musk’s bold claims from his 2020 Battery Day event have largely proven fanciful. (Electrek reports that Tesla (TSLA +3.64%) is presently at about 2% of its original 2030 battery cell manufacturing goal.) I don’t need to believe that Musk is being realistic -- and let me be honest here and say I am extremely skeptical of both his ambitions and his timeline -- to see the very real arms race he’s just unleashed with TERAFAB.

8:15 am

By Andy CrossMotley Fool CIO

The geopolitical situation in the middle east is clearly driving headline movements across the markets for traders. And it can flip with a post or a press conference. Trying to react to everything is a fool's game. But we also can't ignore what is happening around the world that has real economic impacts on the economy, borrowing costs, and asset prices (let alone national and personal security, and human toil). So I stay connected and in-touch, looking for three-year investing opportunities when looking at stocks or ETFs. And I'm not afraid to hold some more cash as prices fluctuate. But it's critical to remember that the best days in the markets almost always happen with days of the worst days in the market. So we don't want to get too cautious if we are investing capital for the next couple of years.

8:00am

In a dramatic Monday morning reversal, U.S. stock futures exploded higher after President Donald Trump announced a temporary halt to planned military strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. In a Truth Social post, Trump reported "very good and productive conversations" with Tehran over the last 48 hours, leading him to postpone his Saturday ultimatum to "obliterate" Iran's power plants for a five-day period. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures soared 1,100 points on the news, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each jumped 2.7%. This sudden pivot toward diplomacy has crushed the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), which had spiked above 30 just hours earlier as investors braced for a catastrophic escalation in the month-long conflict.

7:30 am -- SNPS +2.61% in pre-market trading

Elliott Investment Management has built up a multibillion-dollar stake in chip-design software maker Synopsys (SNPS +4.40%), according to The Wall Street Journal. The activist investor intends to push Synopsys – recommended by both Team Hidden Gems and Team Rule Breakers – to grow its software and services profitability, the report says. The stock rose 2.5% in early trading.

7:25 am -- BRKB -0.74% in pre-market trading

Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB +0.41%) is deepening its commitment to Japan with a 287.4 billion yen ($1.8 billion) investment in Tokio Marine Holdings. The deal, executed through Berkshire's National Indemnity subsidiary, secures an initial 2.49% stake in Japan's largest property and casualty insurer. This marks the first major international move under new CEO Greg Abel, who officially succeeded Warren Buffett at the start of 2026. Beyond the equity stake, the two firms have entered a 10-year strategic partnership to collaborate on global reinsurance and joint M&A opportunities. While Tokio Marine's stock initially dipped 2.6% in Tokyo trading due to the broader "Iran war shock" affecting global markets, the deal signals that Berkshire still views Japan as a primary destination for its $373 billion "dry powder" cash pile.

6:15 am -- TSLA -2.65% in pre-market trading

Elon Musk revealed his most ambitious infrastructure project to date on Sunday: "Terafab," a massive dual-facility semiconductor complex in Austin, Texas. A joint venture between Tesla (TSLA +3.64%) and the newly merged SpaceX-xAI entity, the project aims to produce one terawatt of annual computing power--roughly double the current output of the entire United States. One facility will focus on "edge" chips (AI5/AI6) for Tesla's autonomous vehicles and Optimus robots, while the second will manufacture high-powered, radiation-hardened "D3" chips designed for a constellation of millions of AI data center satellites. Musk framed the $20 billion investment as a "declaration of independence" from giants like TSMC (TSM +2.42%) and Nvidia (NVDA +2.63%), arguing that global production cannot keep pace with his vision of a "galactic civilization."

5:30 am -- NVDA -0.73%, AMD -1.79% in pre-market trading

Korean AI star Upstage is moving to break Nvidia's (NVDA +2.63%) hardware monopoly in South Korea, entering advanced talks with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD +3.10%) to purchase 10,000 of its latest Instinct MI355 AI accelerators. Upstage CEO Sung Kim met with AMD's Lisa Su in Seoul last week to "materialize" a partnership that targets the upcoming round of Korea's "AI Squid Game"--a state-backed foundation model competition. By diversifying its compute stack, Upstage aims to slash the training costs of its forthcoming 200 billion-parameter Large Language Model (LLM), which is slated for a summer 2026 debut. The move is a major win for AMD as it positions itself as the primary alternative for "Sovereign AI" projects across Asia and the Middle East.

5:15 am

Stock futures are falling again Monday morning as the conflict between the U.S. and Iran moves toward a "total war" scenario. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures tumbled more than 2% after Tehran launched fresh retaliatory strikes, defying President Trump's 48-hour ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. With the deadline passed and the world's most vital oil artery still blocked, investors are pricing in an imminent U.S. strike on Iranian energy infrastructure. This geopolitical "black swan" is overshadowing technical milestones from Nvidia (NVDA +2.63%) and Tesla (TSLA +3.64%), as the threat of $130-per-barrel oil risks triggering a global recession and forcing the Federal Reserve into an emergency hawkish pivot.