Key insights
- A discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis suggests Yara International is undervalued, with an intrinsic value of 815 NOK compared to a market price of 527 NOK. The author considers the stock a hedge against geopolitical risks like the US-Israel war, given potential fertilizer price increases. However, the analysis's direct impact on US equities is limited.
DCF Calculation
|Year |Projected FCF|Discounted Value (Today’s Money)| |:-|:-|:-| |2026|$1,244 M|$1,148 M| |2027|$1,307 M|$1,114 M| |2028|$1,372 M|$1,080 M| |2029|$1,441 M|$1,048 M| |2030|$1,513 M|$1,015 M| |Terminal Value|$24,496 M|$16,437 M|
The Final Tally
- Total Present Value: ~$21.84 billion * Net Debt (Q1 2026): ~$3.05 billion * Equity Value: ~$18.79 billion * Intrinsic Value per Share: ~$73.70 (approx. 815 NOK) Investing.com
As of late April 2026, Yara’s actual stock price is approximately 527 NOK.
- Intrinsic Value: ~815 NOK * Market Price: ~527 NOK
I have been eyeing the stock since an increase in fertilizer prices as it is a hedge against us-israel war, but not sure if i found something or just a coincidence