Key insights
- The author expresses a bearish outlook on the US equity market, citing recession indicators like gold/silver surges, oil price increases, inverted yield curve, and the Sahm Rule. They highlight concerns about potential rate hikes, geopolitical tensions (Iran war), and a weakening real estate market. The author holds short positions in SLV, CRWV, CVNA, and TSLA, while being long PSKY and TKO. They anticipate market panic and margin calls, suggesting a challenging year ahead.
my positions
-short SLV 79.71/oz (closing at 50-55/oz)
-short CRWV @101 (closing at $0-20)
-short CVNA @382 ( don't touch. risky a lot of moving parts to this stock, but insider are all selling after short reports came out)
-short TSLA @386 (overall postive on tsla but valuation compression needs to happen first, will turn around and buy eventually)
Edit: I forgot I have calls on the VIX with a strike price breakeven of 26, but that is a small position. I will sell that soon.
Long PSKY @11.71 (will be bumpy ride for a year or 2, but I can stay solvent longer than the market can stay irrational) (holding indefinently)
long TKO @ 75.00 (holding indefinently)
I believe the war in Iran will continue longer than most think. if other countries get dragged into it, things could get really bad. Gas will stay elevated, and stocks will get crushed. For some reason, the fed is floating the idea of RAISING RATES. Another negitive.
RECESSION INDICATORS ARE ALL FLASHING RED! AND ARE AS FOLLOWS
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GOLD TRIPLED IN 6 MONTHS
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SILVER QUADRUPLED IN 6 MONTHS
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Oil has doubled and will likely go higher.
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Inverted yield curve inverted and uninverted roughly 15 months ago. (Recession usually follows 6-18 months after this happens. We are in the sweet spot, and look what is happening.
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On april 3rd, the unemployment data will be realsed. If the unemployment is 4.6% or higher, the SAHM ruled will be triggered. another recession indicator. google the Sahm rule if you are not familiar.
If you have been following the real estate market, you would know that it doesn't look good right now, and keeping rates high/raising rates is terrible for the economy.
Last time the economy went in the dumps (covid), trump blasted jerome Powell to lower interest rates, eventually he did. this time, trump is not acting the same. not hearing much pushback is a bad sign.
I predict things are going south perhaps all year.
Margin calls will happen. panic will set in. Developments of this war are important. I don't see much room for positive news anytime soon...
I want to discuss any or all of my positions with whomever is interested or has input/thoughts. but know that the short positions are obviously more temporary.
PSKY is the most interesting stock that people are overlooking, i feel. a lot to discuss that one.
Anyway, good luck degenerates. now roast me like a turkey