Key insights
- The author expresses concerns about Stardust Power Inc. (SDST) due to competition, reduced government support, and a low market cap, raising delisting risks. The company's future hinges on potential gasoline price spikes boosting EV appeal or an AI slowdown reducing electricity costs. Overall, the author lacks conviction but suggests a small speculative investment.
SDST is a fallen angel of the battery-grade lithium products class - lots of competition, decreased government support, and it crashed from a brief high of 159 to a recent price of under 3. It may be in danger of being delisted because the market cap is $27m (below the $35m, which is the requirement I think).
As of early 2026, the company has completed key engineering and permitting milestones for its planned 50,000 metric ton per annum (MTPY) capacity refinery -- nice story, but among many similar stories of big plans and ground breaking and no operations and the likelihood of more dilution ahead.
To me, the wild card is what the next months will bring -- if gasoline prices spike as madly as some predict. In that event, EVs may start looking much more appealing -- in an economy where fewer people are going to be able to afford rice & beans, let alone a new car. Another wild card is whether AI will crash, taking down electricity prices as the amazing achievements of AI are revealed not to justify the more amazing money spent on it.
So I lack conviction - having no idea how likely the people behind SDST have what it takes really to build a business, and soon. Might be worth a toss of the dice with a few bucks.
Thoughts?