Key insights
- Connecticut reports its first case of clade I mpox, sparking speculation about potential surges in vaccine stocks like SIGA and EBS. The emergence of ANDV hantavirus, coupled with anti-vaccine sentiment, raises concerns about a broader health crisis. Novavax and Moderna are also mentioned as potential beneficiaries due to a rotation into biotech and Novavax's non-mRNA platform. Abcellera is highlighted for its rapid therapeutic development capabilities. Overall, the news leans bearish due to potential health crisis.
The health crisis in the US is getting worse as an mpox case is identified, I expect mpox vaccine makers $EBS (trading below book value) and $SIGA to surge on the news.
Given the circumstances related to the ANDV hantavirus outbreak with R around 2 and 40% mortality rate I can see a perfect storm coming with JFK Jr/ Trump anti-vaccine administration policies making things worse. Brace yourselves..
I'm also watching Novavax and Moderna although they don't have a specific mpox vaccine they will be probably benefiting as well from a general rotation from tech to biotech amid the brewing crisis - Moderna has a hantavirus vaccine in the pipeline and Novavax might be a winner if mRNA is banned by the government - in that case German Biontech also wins as the EU is more pro-science and could take Moderna's market share (another stock below book value).
Also watching Abcellera for a rapid therapeutics development - see their covid "blitzkrieg" discovery of a cure.
"I'm not scared of a germ. I used to snort cocaine off of toilet seats". - RFK Jr.