Key insights
- The RBA rate decision and Fed Williams' speech are key overnight catalysts. Markets expect a 25bps RBA hike
- a hold would weaken the AUD. Any hints from Williams regarding the June FOMC meeting will impact USD and bond markets. US Factory Orders are the main US data point
- a beat supports USD, while a miss triggers risk-off sentiment.
Sharing my macro calendar notes for tomorrow. Here's what I'll be watching:
**RBA Rate Decision - 8:30 PM ET (TOP EVENT)**
Prev: 4.1% | Consensus/Forecast: 4.35%
Markets pricing a 25bps hike. AUD/USD and ASX futures will be very active around this. If they hold instead of hiking, AUD drops fast. The 9:30 PM press conference tone on future hikes matters a lot too.
**Fed Williams Speech - 8:50 AM ET**
NYFed President. If he signals anything about June FOMC (hold/cut), USD and bond markets will react immediately.
**US Factory Orders MoM March - 6:00 AM ET**
Prev: 0% | Consensus: +0.4% | Forecast: +0.5%
First meaningful US data of the week. A beat = USD support, miss = risk-off tone.
**Indonesia GDP YoY Q1 - 8:00 PM ET**
Prev: 5.39% | Consensus: 5.3% | Forecast: 5.6%
EM Asia indicator.
**ECB all day** - Cipollone speech, Annual Report, de Guindos x2, ECOFIN meeting. EUR/USD watch.
**Spain Unemployment April 11 PM** - prev -22.9K, consensus -18.6K
**Turkey Trade Balance April 11 PM** - prev -$11.2B, forecast -$8.0B
Bottom line: light US event risk during regular hours. RBA overnight is the week opener catalyst. Position AUD pairs before 8:30 PM ET.
Not financial advice - sharing for discussion. What are you all watching tomorrow?