Key insights
- The author compares the market impact of tariffs and a potential Iran war, suggesting tariffs had a greater negative influence. The analysis anticipates CPI and earnings data as key near-term market drivers. The author expresses uncertainty about the market's direction in the coming weeks, highlighting the potential for further declines.
last April tariff -20%. vs Iran war -10% ish from index perspective.
not sure which of these two causes is supposed to make bigger impact to the economy and stock market too.
i guess it seems like tariff was a bigger concern for the global economy than iran war?
and two weeks hold - will things get clearer or they end up in a dead-end and stock will dip again?
at this point we just wait for cpi and earnings next week.
and today's after market went up 3% but who knows tomorrow morning.
what are your thoughts?