Key insights
- Morgan Stanley's May North American coatings pricing data shows a significant year-over-year PPI increase of 5.9%, with OEM coatings up 13.7% and transportation OEM pricing surging 53.1%. However, the report notes a disconnect between this strong PPI data and actual company performance, as PPG and Axalta reported flat to negative pricing in Q1 2026. This suggests potential headwinds or reporting discrepancies within the sector, warranting caution despite headline PPI strength.
Investing.com -- Morgan Stanley released data on North American coatings pricing for May, showing the overall coatings Producer Price Index rose 5.9% year-over-year compared to a 1.2% comparison period and increased 0.9% month-over-month.
The firm noted volatility in the underlying PPI data and cautioned against drawing conclusions from a single month of performance, particularly when results do not match company reports or historical patterns. Morgan Stanley pointed to a growing disconnect between transport OEM strength and company results, noting that during the first quarter of 2026, PPG's Industrial Coatings pricing was down 1% year-over-year while Axalta's Light Vehicle price and mix was roughly flat year-over-year.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed no methodology changes for this PPI index in the past year. Morgan Stanley suggested that changes in PPI are typically driven by shifts in demand or input prices, possibly including tariff impacts on imported coatings products or raw materials that could increase demand or prices for U.S.-based alternatives.
Overall OEM coatings PPI increased 13.7% year-over-year versus a 2.0% comparison, reaching 11.0% year-over-year year-to-date. This compares to 3.1% in 2025 and negative 1.9% in 2024.
Transportation OEM pricing jumped 53.1% year-over-year in May against a 7.2% comparison, while the two-year stack rose slightly to 60.3% from 57.2% in April. Other OEM pricing increased 2.5% year-over-year on a 0.7% comparison.
Architectural coatings PPI rose 5.1% year-over-year versus a 0.3% comparison, reaching 4.3% year-over-year year-to-date compared to 1.7% in 2025 and 0.3% in 2024.
Special Purpose coatings PPI increased 2.4% year-over-year versus a 1.8% comparison, now at 0.6% year-over-year year-to-date compared to 0.9% in 2025 and negative 1.1% in 2024.